85. India? Would Pakistan be cowed down


85.       India
has been a victim of terrorism and insurgent movements sponsored by Pakistan
for decades however a fragmented Pakistan as a Plausible scenario 2030 and
beyond may have conflicting ramifications. India has been highlighting the role
of Pakistan in almost all international forums. 
World powers are aware of the same to some extent, however, most of them
are mute spectators for various reasons. Considering India’s emergence as a Regional
superpower, any Indian involvement in supporting insurgency in Balochistan
would result in change in global perspective towards India. 


86.       A
section in India suggests a tit-for-tat policy be pursued in Balochistan in
response to Pakistan’s interference in Jammu and Kashmir. There is also an
argument that Pakistan has been blaming India for the troubles in Balochistan,
so why not get involved?   Even if India
manages to create an independent Balochistan, what is the guarantee that it
would support India? How would Pakistan minus Balochistan react to India? Would
Pakistan be cowed down and accept India’s superiority in South Asia or become
brazen and support jihadi groups in J and elsewhere in India leading to a
communal bloodbath? Implications of any developments will have to be assessed
in light of possible ramifications and likely view points of various countries
intertwined with the current situation. These are given in succeeding

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87.       USA.  Despite accusations of Pakistan of US support
to the Baloch rebels, US made its stand aptly clear of supporting &
respecting the unity and territorial integrity of Pakistan1.
Though US expressed its own concerns in the region which were revealed by it in
wake of India raising the issue of Balochistan in 2016.  US stand on support to Balochistan
independence was cleared in media brief by State Department spokesperson John
Kirby primarily based on following important factors:-


            (a)       Pakistan being perceived ally on its so
called war on terror in            Afghanistan.


            (b)       Strategic logistic supply route via
Karachi Port to Afghanistan           (Alternate
Northern Route being prohibitively costly), closure of which caused     serious deterioration in effectiveness of of
US and NATO forces in just few   days.


            (c)        De
escalation of tension between two nuclear neighbours.


            (b)       Avoidance
of another Middle East in Central Asia.


            (e)       A troublesome Balochistan is detrimental
to China with respect to its          CPEC
and Gwadar port developmental efforts which           in
turn will prevent US        status being
relegated to China as a trade giant . China coming on top    with better access to OPEC nations in the
Persian gulf is a strategic loss to     US
which will be outcome of normalicy in Balochistan. The situation will be             further unstable considering
internal security challenges posed by neighbour     Iran. 


88.       At
the same time US can always resort to using Balochistan as a tool to leverage
it against Pakistan for its future plans if Pakistan resort to cutting supply
lines through Karachi port to Afghanistan or it continues to support Taliban
& Hakkani network. US can easly put pressure on Pakistan by raising HR
violations issues in Balochistan by Pak military.


89.       China.            China
has invested almost $ 51 bn in CPEC and Gwadar port with an apparent aim of
assisting its all weather ally Pakistan in large scale economic development and
also with other strategic aims like reducing dependence on Malacca straits,
better access to resources rich Persian gulf countries and Gwadar turning out
first military base outside China. 
Chinese authorities however are not alarmed to Pakistan’s accusations of
India trying to scuttle CPEC2.  However, evidence in this regard will surely
be detrimental to India as China will make all efforts to show India in poor
light in international forums.


90.       Afghanistan.             Afghan government has not yet come
to terms with the controversial Durand Line border between Afghanistan &
Pakistan.  There have been numerous
clashes between the two over boundary in the recent past.  US President Mr Donald Trump and many US
Generals have accused Pakistan of supporting Taliban & Hakkani network
against new Afghan government and peaceful reconstruction activities being
carried out by India in Afghanistan.  Afghanistan
has been accusing Pakistan of destroying generations and future of Afghanistan
by involving in internal affairs and destabilising the country by promoting
anti democratic terrorism for decades.


91.       On
the other hand, Pakistan government has been accusing Afghanistan’s
intelligence agency NDS(National Directorate for Security) joining hands with
India’s RAW(Research & Analysis Wing) and together creating trouble for
Pakistan in Balochistan3.  Pakistan has also accused Afghanistan of
allowing its soil to train, fund and equip Baloch fighters.  However, Afghan government has out rightly
denied these accusations.  Any Indian
support to Baloch fighters will be a welcome step for Afghanistan as it has an
unsettled issue of Durand Line to solve with Pakistan.


92.       Iran.     
Baloch in Iran, who are predominantly of the Sunni origin, form only
about 2% of Iran’s total population4. Iran’s
Sistan province is inhabited by predominantly Baloch people and the Balochistan
freedom movement is also claiming Iran’s part of Balochistan for a free
Balochistan. The state and its Baloch subjects shares strained relations and
the Sistan and Balochistan province has witnessed episodes of protracted
insurgency. These fissures were first exploited during the Iran-Iraq war during
the 1980s, when the Iraqi agencies began aiding the movements that were demanding
Baloch autonomy from Iran.


93.       Indian
support for Balochistan Independence movement is likely to antagonise Iran with
whom India has cultivated a good relationship in recent years.  India’s support to Iran, their renewed
economic relations and the fact that Iran is an important route for bringing
natural gas and oil resources into India will influence any possible role India
may play in dealing with, or facilitating discussions of Baloch leaders, with
Iran for Balochistan territory.  Some
likely ramifications of Indian support to Balochistan Independence Movement are
enumerated below:-


(a)       Balochistan Independence Movement gaining
momentum will invariably spread to the Baloch people of Sistan province. Iran
is worried that situation of incessant unrest in its Sistan province could be
exploited by Israel and USA to keep Iran preoccupied with internal issues to
achieve a greater strategic goal of preventing Iran from becoming a developed
nuclear state.  Any Indian assistance in
Balochistan Independence Movement is likely to annoy Iran.


(b)       Iran – Pakistan relations has been on a
low ever since Pakistan’s retired Army Chief decided to head the Islamic
Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT). The Saudi Arabian led alliance
has been perceived by Iran as an anti Shia alliance and Pakistan’s support to
the same has not gone down well in Iran’s political circles.  India must be looking to exploit this
newfound rift between them rather than alienating Iran by involving in
something which would bring these two countries closer.


(c)        Pakistan has already accused India of
using Chabahar port for employing spy agencies to foment trouble in Balochistan
and they have highlighted Kulbushan Jhadav5
case for the same.  Pakistan has taken up
the issue with Iranian authorities when Iranian Head Hasan Rouhani visited
Pakistan in 2017 and requested Iran to ensure that Iranian soil is not used for
any kind of anti Pakistan activities6.   Any proven act by India using Iranian soil
for support of Balochistan Independence Movement will put the much touted
Chabahar port project in jeopardy apart from denting its new found good
relations with Iran.


94.       Arab
Countries.  Arab countries are likely
to criticise India for any kind of involvement in Balochistan Independence
Movement as they will see it as interfering with the internal affairs of
Pakistan.  So far no country has
responded to Pakistan’s accusations of Indian involvement.  However, Pakistan yields good amount of
influence in countries like Saudi Arabia which may influence the opinion of
other smaller countries in the region.


95.       Pakistan.
      Pakistan government has been trying
its best to publicize that India is playing dirty games in Balochistan.  Pak government has employed large amount of
resources for the same purpose.  One
example is the dossier it handed over to UN Chief on 07 January 2017.  However UN doesn’t seem to have given a serious
look into it given Pak history of manipulations and double games.


96.       The
blame on India supporting Baloch activists has not always stemmed from
Islamabad.  Some western observers have
pointed to possible covert funding of groups like BLA by the Indian government.  According to Wikileaks cables, US and British
intelligence services broadly agree that India sees Balochistan as payback for
Pakistani meddling in Kashmir. Chuck Hage, US Defense Secretary in his speech
on 2011 also mentioned India using Afghanistan as a second front and financing
problems for Pakistan.


97.       However,
The relative low status of the Baloch movement lends very low credibility to
the accusations of Indian involvement. 
The weapons being used by Baloch rebels are purchased from Persian Gulf
States funded by Baloch compatriots7.
Pak security establishments are worried that Indian strategy seems to keep
Pakistan Army committed in internal security duties by withdrawing more forces
from it Western Front.


98.       It
is clearly evident that both Pakistan government and its army is desperate to
show Indian involvement in Balochistan. The recent act being kidnapping an
Indian businessman from Iran incidentally an ex Navy officer and brandishing
him as an Indian spy fomenting trouble in Balochistan, torturing him inhumanly
are extreme desperations on the part of Pakistan military and government.


99.       Mr
Sartaj Aziz, the Pakistan Prime Minister’s advisor on foreign affairs,
mentioned in a statement that reference to Balochistan in Modi’s Independence
Day speech proved Pakistan’s contention that RAW is inciting terrorism in
Balochistan8.   Pakistani analyst claimed that Modi’s speech
was harmful for Baloch cause as it discredit indigenous Baloch movements.  It is likley that Pakistani army would
enhance the brutality in Balochistan as Balochi seperatist leaders would be
branded as Indian agents.


If at all India support Balochistan Independence movement, Pakistan is not
going to change its terrorist activities in Kashmir because Kashmir is the
reason for existence of Pakistan Army. 
However, it is clear that Pakistans’ government and Army establishments
are worried about Indian involvement in Balochistan.  Some implications of the same are:-


(a)       Pakistan 
government will have to carry out large scale diplomatic campaign to
paint India black.  Most countries in the
world would not take Pakistan seriously due to its poor track record of dealing
with terrorism and low credibility of country in international forums.


(b)       Pakistan military will have to continue
commit prohibitive force level in Balochistan to deal with its Internal
Security situations.  This will be at the
cost of employment of the same in either Eastern or Western front.



 101.   Russia.  Though
Russia is an all weather ally of India, presently Russia is closing up with
Pakistan in view of increasing India-US cooperation in various affairs.  In such a circumstance, Russia is unlikely to
stand by India in any involvement from it in Balochistan. 





102.    A
lasting peace in Baluchistan can never be based on repression and the denial of
basic human rights. The Pakistani government must begin a new policy towards
the region which should include recognizing the legitimate grievances of the
Baloch and once and for all ending the ‘Kill and Dump’ policy.



103.    International
intervention is required at this peek moment of time. The family members of
victims were turned down from filling case against the act. The Supreme Court
had rescued many victims and restored them back to their homes, but no action
was taken against the perpetrators. Even today extra judicial killing,
abductions and torture incidence take place, prominently in areas of Balochistan.
The US should fully implement the Leahy Law9
which prohibits the provision of military assistance to any unit of the
security forces or a foreign country where there is credible evidence that such
unit has committed gross violations of human rights. Pakistan government needs
to take strong stand against such heinous activities, suspension of Police
officials committing such crimes. Enforced disappearances inflict unbearable
cruelty not just on the victims, but on family members, who often wait years or
decades to learn of their fate. Many cases result in the extrajudicial killing
of the victims. Human Rights Watch has urged Pakistan to fulfil its obligation
to investigate all “disappearance” cases and prosecute those responsible.


104.    Amnesty
International, the Asian Human Rights Commission and UN High Commissioner for
Human Rights (OHCHR) in their reports, time and again, have reminded the
government of Pakistan of its legal obligation under international law to
respect the right to life, probe into the cases, ensure an independent and
transparent investigation into the incidents to bring all those suspected of
involvement in killing and keeping in detention the enforced disappeared Baloch
to book.





105.    Hypothesis Validation.    In
the light of research, analysis of the Plausible Scenarios and survey analysis,
the hypothesis stands validated. It indicates that Balochistan is preparing for
a long, sustainable, low intensity conflict primarily aimed at projecting their
genuine rievance on the one hand and weakening and undermining the capacity of
the Pakistani government on the other thus proving that the Kill and Dump
policy of Pakistan Federal Government is cause of widening faultlines of
Balochistan and sInstability in Pakistan.

1 Times of India, “US
says It does not support independence for Balochistan” , 13 Sep 2016. Accessed
Nov 16,2018. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/US-says-it-does-not-support-independence-for-Balochistan/articleshow/54304693.cms

2 The Indian Express ”
China dismisses Pakistan general’s allegation of RAW sabotaging CPEC”, 20 Nov
2017. Accessed December 21, 2017. http://indianexpress.com/article/world/china-dismisses-pakistan-generals-allegation-of-raw-sabotaging-cpec-4946527/

3 Dawn, RAW, NDS
patronizing terror groups in Afghanistan, national security advisor tells US
envoy. October 26, 2016. Accessed on November 10, 2017. https://www.dawn.com/news/1292399.

4  Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre Report
2014. Accessed on December 01, 2017. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/180927/31c68a20991b5a98b0dece4fd929c9c8.pdf

5 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kulbhushan_Jadhav

6 Dawn. “Gen Raheel
discusses RAW’s involvement in Balochistan with Rouhani. March 26, 2016.
Aceessed on December 01, 2017. https://www.dawn.com/news/1248064

7 Indian Express
Archive. May 27, 2009. Accessed on Dec 02, 2017. http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/no-evidence-that-india-aiding-pak-baloch-rebels/466814/

8 Times of India.
“Balochistan rant Modi’s diversionary tactics : Pakistan”. August 15, 2016.
Accessed on August 26, 2017. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/Balochistan-rant-Modis-diversionary-tactics-Pakistan/articleshow/53711759.cms

9 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leahy_Law