1. the types and the distribution of

1.      Assuming
you are advising to a vessel owner who wishes to purchase a new fleet of
vessels for the year 2018, prepare a small report recommending the types and
the distribution of vessels. Here exponential smoothing forecasting method is
used for forecasting the demand for 2018.  

For
the all three forecasting, assume ? =0.9

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Year

Oil and Gas

Forecast

Main Bulks

Forecast

Dry Cargo

Forecast

Total

Total forecast

1970

1440

1440

448

448

717

717

2605

2605

1980

1871

1440

608

448

1225

717

3704

2605

1990

1755

1828

988

592

1265

1174

4008

3594

2000

2163

1762

1295

948

2526

1256

5984

3967

2005

2422

2123

1709

1260

2978

2399

7109

5782

2006

2698

2392

1814

1664

3188

2920

7700

6976

2007

2747

2667

1953

1799

3334

3161

8034

7628

2008

2742

2739

2065

1938

3422

3317

8229

7993

2009

2642

2742

2085

2052

3131

3411

7858

8205

2010

2772

2652

2335

2082

3302

3159

8409

7893

2011

2794

2760

2486

2310

3505

3288

8785

8357

2012

2841

2791

2742

2468

3614

3483

9197

8742

2013

2829

2836

2923

2715

3762

3601

9514

9152

2014

2825

2830

2985

2902

4033

3746

9843

9478

2015

2932

2825

3121

2977

3971

4004

10024

9806

2016

3055

2921

3172

3107

4059

3974

10286

10002

2017

3040

3042

3160

3165

4050

4051

10250

10258

2018

3040

3161

4050

10251

The
value of ? assumed as 0.9 according to the data range given.  The following graphs show the flow of data
that given. According to that flow, the value of ? is estimated as 0.9.

And the 2016 actual demand is assumed as 2016
forecasted demand.

 

According to the forecasted values, the demand for
2018 can be estimated as follows.

According to the forecasted demand for 2018, the
2018 fleet plan can be estimated as follows.

 

 

2)

Year

Oil and Gas

Forecast

Main Bulks

Forecast

Dry Cargo

Forecast

Total

Total forecast

2016

3055

2921

3172

3107

4059

3974

10286

10002

2017

3040

3042

3160

3165

4050

4051

10250

10258

2018

3040

3161

4050

10251

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0-4yrs

5-9yrs

10-14yrs

15-20yrs

20+yrs

Bulk
carriers

35.77

33.80

12.05

9.33

9.05

Container
ships

18.63

30.50

22.72

15.66

12.50

General
cargo

7.68

16.50

10.20

7.54

58.08

Oil
tankers

16.03

22.51

15.46

7.74

38.26

Other

14.37

18.65

10.60

8.43

47.96

 

 

 

 

 

Bulk
Carriers

 

Bulk carriers can be
used profitably only for 10 years. There are 30.88% of the vessels which are
aged more than 10 years that carry 26.47 % of the goods. That means the
percentage of the vessels that are over aged is less than half and the amount of
cargo they carry is about quarter of the total tonnage. That is about 837.77. The
bulk trade in 2018 has been reduced from 3165 dwt to 3161 dwt as well. But
there is no much reduction in trade for bulk carriers compared to the amount
that old carriers are transporting. That means they will have to transport about
833.77 dwt of cargo without making profit. There is no much increasing trend
for Bulk Carriers as well. So it’s better for vessel owners to buy new Bulk
carriers to provide the services without making any losses from the excess capacity
that can’t be carried by the vessels that are younger than 10 years. But since
the amount of cargo that carried by the over aged cargo ships are about quarter
of the total trade, its ok to keep them for few more years as well.

 

Container
ships

 

Container ships can be
used profitably only for 15 years. The dry cargo is carried by these vessels.
There are 28.16% of the vessels which are aged more than 15 years that carry 15.09
% of the goods. That means more than half of the vessels will be over aged at
2018. The amount of the cargo that carrying by those vessels also considerable.
The reduction of the demand for the dry cargo is not considerable at all. But the
number of vessels that are in operations has been reduces in considerable amount
from 2015 to 2016. Because of that it’s better to buy more container ships to transport
this dry cargo.

 

General
cargo

 

General cargo can be
used profitably for 25 years. These also made to transport mostly the dry
cargo. There are 58.08% of the vessels which are aged more than 25 years that
carry 37.85 % of the goods. The vessels that are over aged are more than half
of the existing amount while these are carrying considerable amount of dry
cargo. Since there is no much reduction in trade for the dry cargo with a reducing
trend for the general cargo usage from 2015 to 2016 while huge number of
vessels are over aging by 2018 it’s not good for the sustainability of the trade.
So it’s better to buy more container ships as well to transport this dry cargo.

 

Oil
tankers

 

Oil tankers can be used
profitably only for 12 years. There are 53.73% (15.46 ÷ 2) + 7.74 + 38.26 of
the vessels which are aged more than 12 years that carry 30.98% (24.44 ÷ 2)
+12.67+6.09 of the goods. The demand for the oil tankers is same in 2018 as
well as in 2017. But the number of vessels that are being used has reduced
considerably over time from 2015 to 2016. Since by the 2018, the number of over
aged vessels is more than half and the amount of the cargo carried by them is
high, they will have to by vessels in 2018 to do their operations as meeting
the trade demand.

 

 

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