1. Assuming
you are advising to a vessel owner who wishes to purchase a new fleet of
vessels for the year 2018, prepare a small report recommending the types and
the distribution of vessels. Here exponential smoothing forecasting method is
used for forecasting the demand for 2018.
For
the all three forecasting, assume ? =0.9
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Year
Oil and Gas
Forecast
Main Bulks
Forecast
Dry Cargo
Forecast
Total
Total forecast
1970
1440
1440
448
448
717
717
2605
2605
1980
1871
1440
608
448
1225
717
3704
2605
1990
1755
1828
988
592
1265
1174
4008
3594
2000
2163
1762
1295
948
2526
1256
5984
3967
2005
2422
2123
1709
1260
2978
2399
7109
5782
2006
2698
2392
1814
1664
3188
2920
7700
6976
2007
2747
2667
1953
1799
3334
3161
8034
7628
2008
2742
2739
2065
1938
3422
3317
8229
7993
2009
2642
2742
2085
2052
3131
3411
7858
8205
2010
2772
2652
2335
2082
3302
3159
8409
7893
2011
2794
2760
2486
2310
3505
3288
8785
8357
2012
2841
2791
2742
2468
3614
3483
9197
8742
2013
2829
2836
2923
2715
3762
3601
9514
9152
2014
2825
2830
2985
2902
4033
3746
9843
9478
2015
2932
2825
3121
2977
3971
4004
10024
9806
2016
3055
2921
3172
3107
4059
3974
10286
10002
2017
3040
3042
3160
3165
4050
4051
10250
10258
2018
3040
3161
4050
10251
The
value of ? assumed as 0.9 according to the data range given. The following graphs show the flow of data
that given. According to that flow, the value of ? is estimated as 0.9.
And the 2016 actual demand is assumed as 2016
forecasted demand.
According to the forecasted values, the demand for
2018 can be estimated as follows.
According to the forecasted demand for 2018, the
2018 fleet plan can be estimated as follows.
2)
Year
Oil and Gas
Forecast
Main Bulks
Forecast
Dry Cargo
Forecast
Total
Total forecast
2016
3055
2921
3172
3107
4059
3974
10286
10002
2017
3040
3042
3160
3165
4050
4051
10250
10258
2018
3040
3161
4050
10251
0-4yrs
5-9yrs
10-14yrs
15-20yrs
20+yrs
Bulk
carriers
35.77
33.80
12.05
9.33
9.05
Container
ships
18.63
30.50
22.72
15.66
12.50
General
cargo
7.68
16.50
10.20
7.54
58.08
Oil
tankers
16.03
22.51
15.46
7.74
38.26
Other
14.37
18.65
10.60
8.43
47.96
Bulk
Carriers
Bulk carriers can be
used profitably only for 10 years. There are 30.88% of the vessels which are
aged more than 10 years that carry 26.47 % of the goods. That means the
percentage of the vessels that are over aged is less than half and the amount of
cargo they carry is about quarter of the total tonnage. That is about 837.77. The
bulk trade in 2018 has been reduced from 3165 dwt to 3161 dwt as well. But
there is no much reduction in trade for bulk carriers compared to the amount
that old carriers are transporting. That means they will have to transport about
833.77 dwt of cargo without making profit. There is no much increasing trend
for Bulk Carriers as well. So it’s better for vessel owners to buy new Bulk
carriers to provide the services without making any losses from the excess capacity
that can’t be carried by the vessels that are younger than 10 years. But since
the amount of cargo that carried by the over aged cargo ships are about quarter
of the total trade, its ok to keep them for few more years as well.
Container
ships
Container ships can be
used profitably only for 15 years. The dry cargo is carried by these vessels.
There are 28.16% of the vessels which are aged more than 15 years that carry 15.09
% of the goods. That means more than half of the vessels will be over aged at
2018. The amount of the cargo that carrying by those vessels also considerable.
The reduction of the demand for the dry cargo is not considerable at all. But the
number of vessels that are in operations has been reduces in considerable amount
from 2015 to 2016. Because of that it’s better to buy more container ships to transport
this dry cargo.
General
cargo
General cargo can be
used profitably for 25 years. These also made to transport mostly the dry
cargo. There are 58.08% of the vessels which are aged more than 25 years that
carry 37.85 % of the goods. The vessels that are over aged are more than half
of the existing amount while these are carrying considerable amount of dry
cargo. Since there is no much reduction in trade for the dry cargo with a reducing
trend for the general cargo usage from 2015 to 2016 while huge number of
vessels are over aging by 2018 it’s not good for the sustainability of the trade.
So it’s better to buy more container ships as well to transport this dry cargo.
Oil
tankers
Oil tankers can be used
profitably only for 12 years. There are 53.73% (15.46 ÷ 2) + 7.74 + 38.26 of
the vessels which are aged more than 12 years that carry 30.98% (24.44 ÷ 2)
+12.67+6.09 of the goods. The demand for the oil tankers is same in 2018 as
well as in 2017. But the number of vessels that are being used has reduced
considerably over time from 2015 to 2016. Since by the 2018, the number of over
aged vessels is more than half and the amount of the cargo carried by them is
high, they will have to by vessels in 2018 to do their operations as meeting
the trade demand.
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